Making the equipment that makes the components that make the gadgets consumers
may or may not buy demands a mystic ability to see into the future.
No wonder the runes of ASML, the world’s largest maker of semiconductor chip
equipment, are followed closely. Its first-quarter results yesterday –
earnings per share down a quarter from a year earlier, with first-half sales
forecast to be down a fifth – suggest troubles ahead. But things are not
crystal clear.
ASML’s clients – chipmakers – buy more capital equipment in anticipation of
higher spending on discretionary items such as computers, tablets and
smartphones. So poor ASML’s industry is doubly cyclical.
When sales at the world’s largest chipmaker and a crucial ASML client, Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing, fell 10 per cent in 2009, ASML’s sales
plummeted by a half as chipmakers slashed equipment spending.
Equally, in the three years that have followed the crisis, ASML’s sales have
grown an average of four times faster than TSM’s. This year, the group
hopes, is about getting back to normal. ASML’s first-half revenue target of
€2.4bn, therefore, does not look so bad at a quarter above pre-crisis levels.
Smartphones and tablets
Looking deeper into ASML’s crystal ball, demand for smartphones is set to grow
by a further third this year, according to Gartner estimates.
Tablet demand remains strong too. That is part of the reason Intel and TSM,
which make up more of ASML’s business than ever, are both boosting capital
spending.
Intel is rushing to develop advanced mobile chips, prompting a boost in
capital expenditure to $12.5bn this year. That is up a sixth from 2011,
which was already double the average during the previous five years. TSM,
afraid of getting too far behind, will also boost capex this year. Good
omens for ASML.
Dit artikel is oorspronkelijk verschenen op z24.nl